Page Nav

HIDE
FALSE
TRUE

Classic Header

{fbt_classic_header}

Latest:

latest
header

Proposal for the management of epidemics caused by slow immune-response infectious diseases

 There are infectious diseases whose pathogens are able to produce outbreaks (with casualties) in the population over a long period of time,...


 There are infectious diseases whose pathogens are able to produce outbreaks (with casualties) in the population over a long period of time, despite the fact that the immune system of the biological organism, either by encountering the pathogen or by artificial immunization, develops immunity to the pathogen for a longer or shorter ‌period of time. These infectious diseases are characterized by the fact that the infected person remains more or less continuously infectious until the immune system of his or her body has completely overcome the pathogen. In this case, the pathogen is able to persist in the population for a long time (possibly continuously), regardless of its mutation rate and the degree of immunization. This type of infectious disease is caused, for example, by the COVID-19 virus. The following thought is relevant to the rational management of epidemics caused by this type of pathogen. 

Definitions:
Immune response:
the body's biological defense response to fight off a pathogen
Slow immune-response infectious disease: an infectious disease in which the infected individual remains infectious until the pathogen is overcome by the organism's immune system.
Passive control: slowing down the spread of the pathogen in the community by primitive methods (mask, containment, quarantine). Passive control is used to reduce the spread of the pathogen.
Active defense: the biological preparation of the organism to encounter the pathogen (immunization). Active defense is inadequate and is not intended to stop the spread of a slow immune response pathogen. In this case, active defense is aimed at reducing the severity and duration of the infected condition.
Herd immunity: the active social action whereby a sufficient proportion of the population acquires immune protection against a pathogen to end an exponentially growing phase of an epidemic. In the case of epidemics caused by a slow immune-response pathogen, the reaching of herd immunity is not associated with the extinction of the pathogen.
Effective reproduction number: the number of times a person infected with a pathogen passes the pathogen to another person while carrying the pathogen.
Natural reproduction rate: the rate of transmission that occurs in the normal lifestyle of society 

Proposal for a defense procedure in the event of a pandemic caused by a slow immune-response pathogen: 

A. If the natural transmission rate of the pathogen is less than one, the pathogen will cease to spread in the population on its own. In this case, the capacity of the health system, and passive control at the level of economic considerations, is sufficient to deal with the pandemic at the societal level. 

B. If the natural transmission rate of the pathogen is greater than one, it is socially unreasonable (involves too much social stress) to eliminate the outbreak by passive control. In this case, achieving herd immunity as soon as possible is the appropriate way to deal with the pandemic. 

The optimal way to achieve social herd immunity:

1. As long as no active defense is available, it is necessary to reduce the transmission rate below one by applying an appropriate level of passive control. 
2. Tools and methods must be developed for active control as quickly as possible, with adequate resources. 
3. When active protection is available, a social campaign should be launched to encourage its use. 
4. To raise and maintain the immunity level of the population, passive control should be optional for participants in active control, and they should be allowed a lifestyle of community contact to ensure the spread of the pathogen in the society.
5. Passive protection should be made compulsory for those not in active protection (extended it to those in active protection only in unavoidable circumstances), to the extent necessary to take into account the current capacity of the health system. 

The proposed method, while not without casualties, is might the least stressful (optimal) way for society to cope with a specific pandemic. The method outlined suggests an effective and rapid way to combat a pandemic caused by a slow immune-response pathogen such as the COVID-19 virus. 

This method, for maintaining immunity of the society in a long period of time, utilizes the spread of the epidemic pathogen in its strategy, thus apparently making the community more involved, and accelerating the mutation rate of the pathogen, which would lead to a reduction in the level of immunity within the population. However, the mutation rate of the pathogen does not necessarily increase with the spread of the pathogen, since the mutation rate is proportional to the number of organisms, and the pathogen spreads in a population with immunity, with an immune system that effectively inhibits the pathogen's reproduction.

No comments